San Francisco State of the Market

More than 80% of single-family homes in San Francisco sold above asking, and 8% sold for 150%–234% of the asking price.

Why is this happening?

One reason is strategic underpricing. San Francisco agents often list homes below their expected market value to generate more traffic, more showings, more offers, and ultimately more competition.

But underpricing doesn’t explain everything. In some cases, buyers are paying more than even the highest comparable sale in the neighborhood.

A significant share of San Francisco buyers are paying cash, and inventory of desirable single-family homes remains limited. The basic principle of supply and demand is moving the market faster than closed comps can keep up.

We’re also seeing a new wave of buyers with substantial cash and financial flexibility competing for a limited number of homes. And there may be another wave coming: 2027 could turn some of today’s private AI wealth into liquid, spendable wealth.

So the question is: What happens to Bay Area real estate when even more of that money enters the housing market?